Predictive Audiences: Understanding Goal Tracking and Projected Registrations

After setting event goals and sending out invites through a smart campaign, here's how to track your goal progress and understand Marketo's predictions.


When an event program is created in the Marketo Classic experience, the event start date currently defaults to the event creation date. Since projected registrations take into account the amount of time before an event's start date, these numbers may not be accurate if the start date and creation date are the same (unless set intentionally).

Goal Tracking and Projected Registrations

1. You can find goal tracking details in the Reports tab of your event program. In this particular example, there are 150 registered members so far against a goal of 200 (75%).


You'll also see your Projected registrations. Hover over the info icon to see a breakdown of this number by Likelihood segment.



The Attended and Higher chart will remain empty until the day of the event.

2. Click the Chart toggle to switch to a breakdown of your members by registration likelihood. You'll see current registration percentages for each segment, compared to the average percentage for that segment in your past programs.


All members (registered and not yet registered) are categorized based on their registration likelihood. Hover over the info icon to see how these likelihood categories are defined.



Prediction numbers are updated every 24 hours until the day of the event. Any members who are listed as Processing will be included in the next calculation cycle.

Similar Programs

You can gain some insight into your current event by looking at how similar programs performed in the past. This section shows you up to 5 similar programs from the last 6 months, with the number/percentage of members who were Registered or higher.

In calculating similar programs, we include the following factors, among others:

  • Program type
  • Program channel
  • Audience size
  • Program tags
  • Time duration from event creation to event start
  • Event duration



At the top of the Reports page, you can find AI/ML-driven recommendations based on your progress. Check back periodically for helpful tips and insights!


Lead-Level Predictions

Click the Members tab to view all your program members. Hover over the Registration Likelihood or Attendance Likelihood bars to see exact percentages and categorizations. You can then take action on members in a particular category (e.g., everyone in the "Less Likely" to register category), and specifically target them to potentially boost your registration numbers.



Individual likelihood takes into account 40+ lead factors, including profile attributes, lead activity, and past invited/registered/attended activities.

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